Cook Political Report Archives - The Connecticut Star

America Is Undergoing a Massive Population Shift

December 25, 2023 Connecticut Star Staff

Democrat-run states are still losing population, new Census Bureau data reveal, a development that could have electoral implications when the government reapportions congressional districts in 2030.

Oregon, California, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania, all states with Democratic governors and Democrat-controlled state legislatures, lost between 0.01% and 0.52% of their population between July 2022 and July 2023, according to the Census Bureau. Left-leaning states experienced similar declines in the lead-up to the 2020 Census, which led to them losing seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College, an outcome that could occur again in 2030 if current trends persist.

Analysis: Democratic Retirements Could Help the House GOP Grow Its Majority in 2024

December 3, 2023December 2, 2023 Connecticut Star Staff

House Republicans appear to be in a better position to capitalize off of a wave of congressional retirements, as there are more Democratic-held open seats in swing districts that pose an opportunity for the GOP to flip in 2024.

There are currently 31 House members who are not seeking another term in the lower chamber, including 20 Democrats and 11 Republicans — nearly all of whom hold seats that are considered safe for the GOP. Four Democratic-held open seats in battleground districts in Michigan, Virginia and California are most likely to flip red, while several other seats are also up for grabs by the GOP in 2024, according to political analysts and electoral rankings.

Pollsters Shift Five House Seats Toward Dems After SCOTUS Ruling

June 11, 2023 Admin

The Cook Political Report updated the ratings of five House races across several states in 2024 on Thursday, shifting them towards Democrats after the Supreme Court ruled against Alabama’s redistricting plan.

The Court struck down Alabama’s GOP-drawn Congressional map for the 2022 midterm elections on Thursday, ruling in Allen v. Milligan that the was racially discriminatory and diluted African-American voting strength in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The decision’s implications mean that more House seats in Alabama are likely to be competitive in the 2024 election, with the Cook Political Report reflecting those changes in its ratings.

Commentary: The Top 10 U.S. Senate Races to Watch

November 8, 2022November 7, 2022 Admin

Americans will soon get to cast their first votes since the science–denying COVID mask and vaccine mandates, the second wave of COVID-related blowout spending and subsequent inflation, and the COVID-related school closures that allowed parents to see what the public schools are really teaching their boys and girls – including that they can choose whether they are boys or girls. With all of these matters implicitly on the ballot, how are things shaping up going into Election Day?

Starting with the House of Representatives, six months ago Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report projected “a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.” At the time, I responded, “While things could change over the next six months (although the cake is probably largely baked), a GOP gain of 30 to 40 House seats appears more likely at this stage of the contest than Walter’s projected GOP gain of 15 to 25 seats.”

Cook Political Report Gives GOP Heightened Chance of Gaining Two Connecticut Congressional Seats

May 27, 2022May 26, 2022 Bradley Vasoli

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report updated its analysis of congressional races this week to indicate 10 contests have a heightened chance of favoring Republicans, including two races in Connecticut.

Cook previously deemed Connecticut’s Second Congressional District, now held by Democrat Joe Courtney, “Solid D[emocratic]”; the journal now considers the district “Likely D.” And the state’s Fifth Congressional District, represented by Jahana Hayes, was moved from “Likely D” to “Lean D.”